Thornton Market Update

The Colorado Front Range is experiencing a pandemic of sorts. Not the one where we have to wear masks and social distance. I’m talking about the severe lack of inventory impacting our market right this moment. There is such a severe reduction of listing inventory that home buyers are making one over the top offer after another on houses and still walking away without a winning contract bid. In this Thornton market update I’ll discuss:

  • Days On Market
  • New listing inventory
  • Sold data including List to Sales price ratio, Days to contract
  • Average and median home prices – today and relative to last year

The data and graphs in this post are derived from ReColorado – a Denver based multiple listing service (MLS). There are two MLS providers serving Thornton. IRES is the second service. Since the 4th quarter of 2020, the two services are once more sharing data.

Thornton Close Home Prices

What’s happening right now in the Thornton market for residential real estate is unusual. Home sellers need to know it is unlikely to last and wasn’t this way even a few years ago. From November, 2018 to February 2020, home prices barely budged in Thornton. Median values climbed from an average of $369,900 to $375,000. That’s five grand over sixteen months.

Put another way, homes in your community were increasing in value by $300/month for nearly a year and a half.

Since July 2020, home values have leaped from a median price of $385,000 to $403,250 in February 2021. That’s a median increase of Five Grand every other month!

Given a choice on timing, its much greener pastures selling right now, than say during the year plus stretch in late ’18 to early February ’20.

New Listing Inventory – Off The Charts Low

Check out the graph below. From March 2019 to March 2020, inventory increased and held steady. But then the pandemic smashed all the ways we lead our lives. Our houses became Home Offices in lieu of going to a building to work. Our children suddenly were zooming for classes rather than walking the halls and saying the pledge of Allegiance in Home Room. Gyms were out and Pelotons, running and The Mirror became in – insider our houses!

Thornton market update reveals inventory of single family homes plummeted in the Spring of 2020 and has not recovered.

Inventory last Spring plummeted and has been steadily low since last summer. Maybe it’s moving up? Hard to know. In my humble opinion, once the Covid-19 crisis passes, and we have the option to go back to the gym, back to our offices, back to school, once that moment arrives we might not need bigger houses at any price. With two million Americans receiving vaccines daily, the end of this terrible time is in sight.

Meanwhile, there are some great side affects for Home Sellers in this crazy housing market.

Because there is such limited inventory and because home mortgage rates are still very low we are seeing multiple offers with homes selling for better than full price. How much better? Six, twelve, fifteen percent better than full price is what I’m hearing from Realtor friends in super competitive price points such as $400,000 to $500,000.

Thornton home sellers with the flexibility to take advantage of the timing are in a great place to make their best return on investment selling now before inventory levels are restored.

Active Listings February Thornton Market Update

In February 2021, there were 131 active listings. A year prior there were 245 active single family residences. That’s a loss of 53% of the market. It’s numbers like these that cause home buyers to fight over incoming listings and bid them dramatically over full price. Or to take homes as-is without inspections. Or agree to bring the difference to cover a low appraisal. Or even, in some cases, (d) all of the above.

Closed Listings Thornton

Closed Transactions in Thornton have actually exceeded pre-pandemic numbers. Bad news for home buyers – all the inventory is being snapped up. Good news for Thornton home sellers.

That low point reflects June 2020. It makes sense when you recall that Governor Polis basically shut down Colorado in the Spring of 2020. Initially, real estate wasn’t considered essential and home transactions really whittled down. Then we were given the green light to show homes once more – and sales took off in a big way.

Thornton Average Days On Market (ADOM)

A year ago, February 2020, the statistic was 26 days. Now, that’s seventeen. About a week and a half faster. Median time to contract is a mere five days. Imagine it like this – listing goes into the MLS on Thursday, showings start Friday which is technically considered Day 2. Multiple offers are reviewed on Sunday (Day four) and the house is under contract on Monday – Day 5.

Back in 1995, when I started in real estate, that pretty much never happened. It could be weeks to get an offer and then months to closing. Time, kinda funny the way it flies sometimes, huh?

Showings to Sales

Are you too young for the commercial where the owl is eating the lolly pop, wondering how many licks to the center? One, Two, Three – and it crunches to get to the tootsie roll center.

Showings are like that now.

From Friday to Sunday, it’s wall to wall showings for three days. I recommend you stay elsewhere that week – with family or grab an Air BnB.

The median number for all of Thornton last year was maybe a dozen. That figure is now up to twenty. Quite the leap. In the $400,000 to $500,000 price point, plan on two showings an hour, 8 am to 6 pm, Friday & Saturday plus all of Sunday before we review offers. That’s twenty showings a day for three days. Again, check out the graph below. This is really not the norm. When inventory rebalances, expect to see showing fall quickly.

In 2019, it was 10-11 showings per listing. Period.

Boulder Real Estate News / Bob Gordon Analysis

Great market for a home seller. Challenging time for home buyers. Lots of inventory in Thornton – it’s a big place. For an owner with flexibility, planning to stay with family, right this moment Spring has Sprung! This is the market you look for in terms of getting your house, As-Is, on the market.

Inventory is so low, you can sell and still achieve top dollar warts and all. Summer 2019 – the last “normal” market is not that far in the rear view mirror. Then the number of showings per listing was half what it is today. Then, prices were stagnant. Then, there was a lot of new listing competition. Thornton Home sellers are best served taking advantage of this moment to get the highest, best price and terms.

Respectfully, Bob

PS: Contact me to discuss your house!

All data compliments of ReColorado, MLS. Graphs from InfoSparks.

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